Trading Analysis - 14th Sept 2018

Alfacomp

14 September 2018


 

The Current trading analysis is shown below:-

9:41AM

There was another delayed Sell of 150K today - this time at 8:29:53 - we wait to see if a pair appears.

This plot doesn't look right - the SP up when there is 500K more Sells than Buys ? - To me it looks like there is a large Buy of 200-500K waiting to be reported between 8:24 and 8:30. We shall see if the MMs have been obfuscating.

2:03PM

A delayed sell of 198,954 at 13:10 has again knocked the apparent nett trading position back to c. -300K, but a delayed Buy of 286,274 at 8:12 now makes the early morning session make more sense. I still think that there is a Buy to be reported around 8:24am and also at 11:40am - see how the chart changes at that point.
End of Day

Further delayed trades were reported - a 290K Sell at 13.23 (marked in green) plus a clustering of significant sells just after 14:20 - evidently spotted some way off by the Market Makers who cut the Bid back promptly so these did not get good pricing. It is highly likely that there were simply day traders taking a few percent profit on the day - so maybe they will be back on Monday - we'll see.

However the plot of the nett trading position tells a very different story - Share Price up 10% on the day, but 500K more Sells than Buys - is this really believable. You might postulate that with the Share Price higher you might expect to get more people selling and fewer buying, and that if the Market Makers need to fill a hole of 5M shares in their pots then they have to put the price up to get them.

Yes, they need shares. But no they are not going to be prepared to simply put the price up and pay more for them than the average price they got when selling the shares in the last 10 days. That makes no financial sense.

Instead I strongly believe that there are significant delayed Buys that are yet to be reported and which explain the behaviour seen today not just on the daily level, but also on the local temporal level. For example the SP suddenly rose around 8:30am,  at 11:30am, and again at 1:20pm - all at times when according to the data so far revealed that Sells were outnumbering buys - why then the need to increase the share price ?

Why the obfuscation - the Market Makers do not want PIs in the market knowing that there is quite so much demand for shares, and wish to cover this up, lest they encourage a feeding frenzy and make their problems even greater.

 


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