Trading Analysis - 14th Aug 2018

Alfacomp

14 August 2018

The arrival, after hours, of 2x400K and 1x 2.75M share trades obviously adds a great deal of interest to todays trading, which had you not being paying attention might have seemed rather depressed. Actually there were 169 trades reported today versus 203 yesterday and the trading behaviour seems as regular and consistent as the previous day.

As was quickly spotted, and confirmed by jay12, the 2x400K were within seconds of one another and were a rollover of his (T20 presumably) trade taken out when the share price was 22p. There was also a clear Bed & ISA trade pair some 20 minutes after jay12's trades - both of these are correctly accounted for in the trade analysis above.

Whilst there were 1M and 0.75M Sells reported in the morning the first of these was subsequently reversed at about a quarter past one.

Investor81 has pointed out that if the 2.75M reported late today plus the 0.75M Sell from this morning are added to the 1M +0.5M Sells from yesterday then the 5M quantity of the (presumably Atlas) warrants exercise announced yesterday is obtained precisely.

Thus we must consider the possibility that the 1M Sell was reversed following the strong buying that continued throughout the morning and that this was replaced by by the Market Makers with the 2.75M final Sell (at a strange but perhaps calculated average price) when they realised that they could completely close out the warrants pre-sale today.

The end day nett trade position may seem large at minus 2M, but remember that the previous end day nett trade position was plus 650K, which takes out a big chunk from this. If the Market Makers have got wind that news is coming then they be more than happy to have an excess of 1.3M shares sitting on their books. After all they are the ones who set the prices we have to pay.

Thus it would appear that with only a 0.5-0.6p impact on the Share Price the entire warrants block announced yesterday has been pre-sold in just two days. The market movements tomorrow will be very revealing. Those who held on hoping for a lower buy price may find that the boat has already sailed.


 

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