Trading Analysis - 13th Sept 2018

Alfacomp

13 September 2018


 

The Current trading analysis is shown below:-

8:56AM

This morning's RNS detailing the acquisition of Sojitz's stake in Vametco without ANY dilution has not surprisingly put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Whilst there was clearly an attempt early on to hold back the SP rise, with 3x 150K Sells WITHIN 4 SECONDS (marked in green) this has had no material impact on the subsequent rise, as the large scale chart above, and detailed chart below, show.


By 8:56 there was an excess again of Buys over Sells - this time on 1.3Million shares. Add this to the 5M that are still to be found to cover the excess Buying in previous days and you conclude that the only way that the SP can be held back as it is is if the remaining (<10M now) warrants are being consumed in the process. There is the clear possibility that they could be out of warrants quite soon. Remember what happened when the Erongo overhang cleared.


11:26AM


Further delayed reports of 150K Sells, again marked in green start to look very interesting. There is a new 150K Sell at 9:39, but also another one at 8:02:11. This makes a pair at 8:02:07 and a second pair at 8:02:11. These pairs are very reminiscent of the Erongo Selldown - when Sells from Erongo were evidently duplicated, presumably as a result of Inter-Market Maker trades that were either intentionally or accidentally obfuscatory. 

If this pattern repeats then we should be able to assume that only one trade from each pair really contributes to the nett MM<->PI share movement and as such the other can be ignored. At present though I am counting both parts of the pair in the nett trading position, which now yields 1.0M more Buys than Sells.

3:37PM


No further delayed sells for today reported yet, though there was a 350K sell at 2:12pm yesterday which knocked the excess of Buys back to only 1.87M more Buys than Sells. Looking at this plot you might think that something similar might have gone on around 10:30am today. Excess of Buys = 1.24M at present.


End of Day


The delayed report of a 760K sized Sell at 8:43am marked the point at which the market makers let go of the share price in the early morning session - note how this coincides with the point of inflection on the Bid Buy price in the period before 9am. Before this it is the  'spike it up and then walk it down' kind of behaviour that is often seen. The spread narrows and then once the 760K threshold is reached the Sell overhang is cleared and the market makers let go of the share price.

Very similar behaviour was observed yesterday ahead of the 8:53am sell of 629,689 shares. It is almost as if there is a daily limit of 600-700K shares being supplied by a particular seller or warrant holder, and that once this is reached the market behaviour changes to one which more freely allows the SP to appreciate. It will be interesting to see if similar behaviour occurs again in tomorrow's morning session.

This results in an end of day Nett Trading position of 430K more Buys than Sells, though it must be noted that this counts both of the pairs of 150K trades at 8:02:07 and 8:02:11 - if it turns out that the pattern of pairs is persistent we may perhaps ascribe one of these to an Inter-MM transfer (a la Erongo) and this would increase today's nett day trading position to +730K.

There were no further delayed trades reported for yesterday or the previous week so the accumulated Nett trade position for the Market Makers becomes:

5th Sept : + 1.1M more Buys than Sells

6th Sept: + 0.12M more Buys than Sells

7th Sept : - 0.12M more Buys than Sells

10th Sept : + 1.56M more Buys than Sells

11th Sept : + 0.14M more Buys than Sells

12th Sept: + 1.87M more Buys than Sells

13th Sept: + 0.43M (maybe +0.73M) more Buys than Sells 

Total 5.1M more Buys than Sells since the 5th Sept.



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