The first four trades at the start of trading were all 50K sells which led the Market Makers to immediately drop the bid to 9p. A buy of 150K at 08:21 hoovered up most of these sells and there was no subsequent selling following on from this rather obvious, albeit laughably small attempt at further flash shorting the market.
There are two ways of interpreting this early pattern
- We could be generous and suggest that these sells came from a Do-It-Yourself shorter ‘having a go’ after the multiple ShareProphets rants and tweets over the bank holiday weekend. Any DIY shorters, being late to the party (there never was one) will find they lose out even more when the inevitable short squeeze kicks off.
- This is simply the same pattern that the original 18th Aug shorters tried, albeit it at a smaller scale – an obvious test of the market after the disinformation campaign previously mentioned.
Let’s see what happened in the rest of the day and see if this makes a decision between these two options possible…
The Ask dropped around 10 o’clock – was this caused by further big sells ? – no not really – the two sells around then were only 45K and 12K in size – the MMs probably just dropped the bid to try and encourage some trading. Trading continued with buys and sells seemingly in balance until about half past two in the afternoon when a sequence of 4 buys amounting to a total of over 300K shares led to the Bid and Ask both being raised. A couple of round 100K sells at the end of the day, plus another 200K sell around 10:40am makes a total of 400K in sells of 100K multiples on top of the initial 4x50K.
If you add these sells to the approx. 2.4M we already believe has been sold in the current short then you reach a total of 3M – which might well be where the short stops if it were backed by the Darwin warrants. If we get no more ShareProphets articles then that might increase our confidence in such the conclusion that scenario 1 of A short story about a hedge has been played out before our eyes. A warrants RNS might well prove it.